The summer oilseed crops forecast comes after the country harvested a lower winter crop of mainly soyabean and groundnut because of erratic monsoon rains. India grows two oilseed crops, mainly soyabean and groundnut in the winter season and rapeseed and groundnut in the summer season.
Winter crops are sown in June and harvesting begins in September, while summer crops are grown between November and March. The June-September monsoon season usually impacts both winter and summer crops.
Rainfall in 2004 was 13 percent below normal, but rains at the end of the season in September gave the soil more moisture for summer sowing. The trade body forecast the summer crop would rise to 10.37 million tonnes from 10.01 million tonnes in the previous year.
Production of rapeseed, the season's main crop, is expected to increase to 7.02 million tonnes from 6.7 million a year ago. But groundnut output is likely to be unchanged from the previous year's 1.7 million tonnes, COOIT said in its first advance estimates.
Total oilseed production in 2004/05 (October-September) is forecast to fall to 22.97 million tonnes from 23.91 million tonnes in the previous year because of lower winter crops due to the uneven monsoon.
The acreage under mustard and rapeseed has increased to 6.6 million hectares (16.3 million acres) this season from 5.86 million hectares a year ago, according to the farm ministry.
Traders said farmers were encouraged to grow more oilseeds because of high prices last year but it will be tough for the government to maintain the minimum price support level.
"Prices are already ruling lower than the government's support level because globally the oilseed output is better than last year," COOIT Chairman Sandeep Bajoria told Reuters.
Dealers said rapeseed prices were ruling around 15,500 rupees to 16,000 rupees ($355.3 to $366.7) a tonne for March delivery against the government's minimum support price of 17,000 rupees a tonne.
Global oilseed production including soyabean in Brazil and Argentina and palm in Malaysia and Indonesia is likely to rise this year. COOIT said edible oil imports were likely to be 4.5 million tonnes in 2004/05 compared with 4.4 million tonnes in the previous year.
India, which imports some 40 percent of its annual needs of 11 million tonnes of edible oil, is the world's fourth-largest vegetable oil producer.
The country buys palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and soya oil from Brazil and Argentina. India also grows sunflower, linseeds, safflower and sesameseed in smaller amounts.
Production of sesameseed and linseed is likely to fall during the summer season because of lower area under cultivation.